Sunday, April 8, 2012
World Bank report: high-speed rail to repayment of the principal to be a long-term financing arrangements
World Bank report said, according to other parts of the experience of good performance, even if high-speed rail project, the cash income to cover running costs and the interest on debt, but if you do not have a number of long-term financing arrangements, will almost certainly be unable to repay the principal. China's high-speed rail passenger service has been running 3 years, and their performance? On the same line toward conventional railway passenger services have changed? What are some of the civil aviation market impact? So far, in this regard has not yet been fully reported, but the momentum of the development is already beginning to see signs. As in the case of other countries, China's high-speed rail in the 1,000 -kilometer sprint in passenger transport market competitive, and the civil aviation is in a long-distance passenger transport market. However, in general, civil aviation passengers and for streaming high-speed rail passenger traffic is not the main source, the greater is the source of the "New Generation" passenger, that is to say high-speed passenger service from the convenience of the traveler. Based on this evidence, as well as China's cities and towns of the population and income growth, and we continued to be strong for China's high-speed railway network of the major long-term throughput (and its economic viability remains cautiously optimistic). China's high-speed rail network from the perspective of the entire, because of the need to develop in the near to medium term sustainable financing mechanisms, carefully measure the perimeter of the network expansion costs and benefits can be optimistic about, whether or not has yet to be tested. Of China's current high-speed rail network, the high speed rail network has been developed to more than 6800 km away. For the first 6 times the speed (Note: In 2002, Qinhuangdao and Shenyang, 200km test train, in the 2007 upgrade to 250 km/h. These "speed" of the passenger train (the car) and 250 KM and 350 km of high-speed rail train, as China's high-speed train (CRH), China in April 2007, at the national rail network on-line at a speed of 200 km/h, but the first passenger train in a dedicated article on the high-speed rail (HSR) train to Beijing, Tianjin, is the passenger train line beijing-tianjin high-speed rail ( ) high-speed rail, this article until August 2008, prior to the commencement of the Games is just opening up. So far, China's high-speed railway network has grown to more than 6800 km, in accordance with long-term railway development in planning, in the year 2020, will also be building a new online for approximately 16,000 kilometers. High-speed rail costs of building construction standards and high-speed rail construction costs depend on natural tunnels and high-frame structure of weight. The new high-speed rail line there are two basic types: one is that the design trunk line, maximum operating speed of 350 km/h; 2 passenger line is the design maximum speed 250 km/h for the Level 2 route 3 and the regional inter-city rail passenger service, and some green, some are able to carry high-speed freight trains, container. Most of Chinese high-speed rail line there are a large number of tunnels and viaducts (hilly areas) or high plains structure (micro-Hills area), the latter in order to protect arable land, and to minimize land division. High-speed rail construction costs depends on natural tunnels and high-frame structure of weight, but if you do not include station, the cost per kilometer is typically between 80 million - $120 million (RMB 13 million - $20 million). The station usually cost depends on distance and scale of construction site, but for the big city of high-speed rail line is shorter, the cost will be increased to 3. High-speed rail service and fares to the car with the price of long-distance bus price competition, and high-speed rail is usually a much cheaper aircraft, unless it is discounted ticket offers. These high-speed rail trains run more frequently, frequency is generally from 7 to 12, every 1 hours, or half an hour, usually a 8 car formation. Some of the first in the network in a neighboring passenger opens the high-speed rail line (such as the Zhengzhou and Xi'an high-speed rail) except that these routes are currently only run the local train. In 2007, China's high-speed train (all year round), CRH turnover reached about 40 million km, and all are mentioned in the "General" on railway lines run. In 2011, this number has more than 250 million vehicles, KM, of which 85% is the maximum speed of 250 km or more, and running on passenger line of the passenger train network, turnover (KM) for a 4. At the national level there are two speed for the train fare, but the car and high-speed rail in the actual fares between the route there was a slight variation (see attached list). In contrast, the prices of airline tickets per kilometer is generally around $0.7 in a short price but also to some more expensive long-distance bus fares, per km approximately 0.35 million, slightly higher sleeper buses. Therefore, the prices of long-distance bus with competitive prices and high-speed rail is usually a much cheaper aircraft, unless it is discounted ticket offers. (Note: The regular train fares per kilometer range of the guests of the slow train, to $0.11 at a speed of 200 km Express train between $0.30 and almost equal to the new 250 km/h passenger train line fares per kilometer. ) on a normal passenger train in the impact on some rail corridor has been canceled, and many of the conventional train is an overnight train. In some of the lines, and new high-speed rail line parallel to the regular train trips have been cut, the situation is more common. In Wuhan and Guangzhou route as an example, in 2007, Wuhan, Guangzhou this corridor originating in the train (to facilitate discussion in this article, called "local" train) every day, 17 Day, 42 train is originating from the corridors outside the (this is called the "transit" train) (Note: For example, from Beijing to Guangzhou, the train in this corridor is a "transit" trains, and from Wuhan (or Changsha, Shaoguan, and so on) and finally to the Guangzhou train is a 'local' train). In 2009, the two trains have been increased, respectively, to 23 and 47 day trips. For a short stay (for example, from Changsha and Guangzhou) generally more easy-to-buy "local" train, it would be difficult to buy the "transit" train, the distinction between the two trains with trains its relevance (Note: The Ministry of railway ticket quota system in general is not biased toward long-haul travel and excursions, in order to maximize network utilization). Following the opening high-speed rail train, the local train to train only 6 trips, while transit train trips to 52 trips. In a railway corridor, many of the canceled the general circulation is an overnight train. For example, in 2009, Changsha and Guangzhou are among the "local" 12 times in the evening train is 7 PM to midnight originating from Changsha, the overnight train travel 8 to 9 hours, not only low in cost and ease of travel time, because the vehicle can be used to sleep. High-speed rail in 2011, the opening at the same time period, leaving only the 3 trips this train. According to media reports, the train is part of the canceled passengers one of the reasons for dissatisfaction. The passenger train service of the changes brought about by another important impact is cargo capacity. For example, in Wuhan and Guangzhou was canceled on the line 12 times normal passenger train, it can be increased by about 6 times for freight trains, and the Ministry of Railways provide important additional income-generating capacity. In high-speed rail passenger traffic demand has been observed on one of the important features of the new generation of travel is a high level of service, i.e. , those that raise the level (speed, interval, reliability and comfort) and increased travel. On the car and the high-speed rail passenger train, do not generally have a more official figures available, but indirect evidence that, when compared with international experience, traffic was generally more favorable. In 2010, there were 290 million people (total of domestic passenger traffic at 17 per cent) of the ride at a speed of more than 200 km in the car and high-speed rail passenger service, including the above mentioned lines and "speed") the car go. Since 2006, these high-speed passenger trains on the railroad passenger traffic demand has increased overall, and one important contribution, since 2007 the growth rate is roughly equivalent to 200 kilometers per hour above the train service traffic. From Beijing to Tianjin's first high-speed rail passenger service is relatively short, In 2008, the entire process open 117 KM, assuming current year about 25 million passenger trips the passengers. Wuhan to Guangzhou passenger line (968 km) passenger transport throughout about 22 million people, but most of them passengers are not on the line throughout the line, the average passenger density is approximately 10 million people each year. (Note: The average passenger traffic density is a passenger turnover (who, in addition to KM) line length (km). ) is probably the lowest throughput to Zhengzhou, Xi'an river of the Nanchang to line 9, both of which belong to the future part of the route, and is today an isolated operation. Along with the rest of the network, and the completed the line will be able to provide a wider range of terminal line trains provide service to help increase the frequency and traffic. To date, in high-speed rail needs to be observed on one of the important features is that the new generation of travel is a high level of service, that is, those higher level (speed, interval, reliability and comfort) and increased travel. In moo-wide high-speed rail as an example, 2009 new high-speed rail service throughout the corridor before shipping the "local" train passengers about 45 million people (i.e. , those that began with the railway station and is in the corridor of the train) is a new year .2,010 running high-speed rail's first full year, and the general high-speed rail trains and passenger trains of the approximately 55 million people, including high-speed rail passenger 20 million people (Note: According to the corridors of the passenger traffic growth trends, and if not that the new high-speed rail traffic demand, each year may be increased by about 1.5 million passengers. In these passengers, there are approximately 1 million people from the civil aviation, another 10 million people have been transferred from the regular train service, there is also a small number of passengers traveling from long-distance bus and transferred from the cars. Based on these estimates, each year in the high-speed train ride of 20 million People, approximately 50% are from the regular train, transfer to the other about 5 per cent from the CAD source, and the remaining 45% either New Build passenger traffic that either from long-distance bus and car passengers to transfer to the vast majority of whom are new generation of passenger travel. In other words, the Wuhan - Guangzhou railway corridor, there are nearly 25 per cent of the regular passenger train ride, and high-speed rail line in the whole train passenger market (General train together with high-speed rail) increased by about 20 per cent. Beijing and Tianjin train passenger is also showing similar laws. Prior to 2008, the line of conventional train traffic each year about 8 million people, however, introduce high-speed rail train, the trading volume has been reduced to 5. Long-distance buses are also due to the high iron loss throughout the approximately 1 million people in traffic. Now, each year there are 25 million people ride on the Express rail link. On this basis, the current passenger demand, each year there are approximately 20 million passengers from either a private car transfer to the new generation, either by the passenger. With the Wuhan, as is the case in the majority of these travel may have a new generation of passenger traffic, it means that the line produces conservative estimates of the rate is 65 per cent or higher, this description of the services for high-speed rail type and quality of the potential there is a huge demand. From the Changchun in Jilin 111 full-length high-speed rail line design speed km, 250 km away. High-speed railway line opened in between the two cities of the regular train travellers each year an estimated 4 million people. January 2011 new high-speed rail trains start running, it is estimated that about 10 million passenger transport. From long-distance bus based on the information available, it is estimated that there are 2 million Year long-distance bus passengers ride high-speed rail. In addition, it is estimated that there were about 1 million year round from the "local" train ride ride high-speed rail, so that there are only approximately 7 million people, or from private car transfer from either of the new generation of travel is generated so as to arrive at rate of about 40 per cent to 50 per cent. In spite of the above generated passenger traffic at a high rate, but some of these lines of traffic were still significantly lower than in the Feasibility Study for high-speed rail service in the first year forecast predicts. One reason for this is that many feasibility studies have assumed that the high-speed rail is turned, and a large number of regular passenger train passengers will ride high-speed rail, but there is little to fare better than conventional high-speed rail train fares are much higher (as described above) to make a real, many feasibility studies simply assume that an existing conventional train of all guests will be transported by high-speed rail. In fact, as mentioned above, to Wuhan and Guangzhou Railway line as an example, only about 25% of the visitors to take a high-speed rail. However, this ratio will increase as the population increases in income, a high-speed rail traffic long-term growth of a source. Traffic projections and actual values there is a difference between the other important reason is that many feasibility studies assume that, in any high-speed rail opening article, when the entire 2020 network has been formed. In fact, for the most high-speed rail corridors, the final layout of the railway network still needs a certain number of years, passenger traffic at the time as demand may be high-speed rail network will be built and the gradual increase in traffic on the lines of "climb" than is usually the case even more apparent. For example, in the case of the Zhengzhou and Xi'an high-speed rail feasibility study estimates that the start and end point, in the corridor will be the only local travel to the line of total passenger traffic, turnover (km) and 20 per cent of the remaining 80% is a distance of a long high-speed rail travel destination that is in the Zhengzhou or travel outside of Xi'an. In light of current high-speed railway network layout, this is the case it is impossible to achieve. Along with the rest of the network can be built, it was in the corridor outside the terminal by high-speed rail travel, Zhengzhou and Xi'an to support high-speed rail passenger traffic growth. Rest of the network in the next few years in operation, and other high-speed rail line will also feel similar to the positive "network effect" . In the other modes of transport of the affected for long-distance train travel routes, from the Speed and cost perspective, the main competition high-speed rail way to travel is the civil aviation; in contrast, for a short trip inter-city and its main competition is a way to travel long-distance buses and private cars (sedans and medium-sized buses) for a distance in .500km of high-speed rail travel in the air passenger traffic has also had a strong impact. It is widely reported, and in a short high-speed rail route have been abolished after subscribing; from Zhengzhou and Xi'an and Wuhan from the flight to Nanjing, only high-speed rail service in survivors after a few months will be canceled. For example, the Cheung Sha flight to Guangzhou (two-way). Distance from the route 600 km, from high-speed rail passenger service every month before about 90,000 people, was reduced to the current of about 30,000 people each month, from flight 750 per month, reduced to 250 per month. In Wuhan and Guangzhou is also on the route you can see similar patterns (about 900 KM away), although not as dramatic changes before and after. The route of traffic has dropped by nearly half, from about 120,000 per month to each of the passengers, 60,000 flights and passengers from 900 per month, reduced to about 600 courses. However, when the travel distance of more than 1000 KM, the effect seems to have quickly disappears. Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway (nearly 1300 km) to the opening between the two cities of air passenger traffic on the impact is very limited.